Statistics from Mandarin Financial show that since 2019, except for Shanghai nickel futures, which has seen a significant increase in the center of gravity, the remaining non-ferrous futures varieties have maintained a downturn. Although the plate as a whole rebounded from July to early September, the continuous correction since late September has largely given up the previous increase.

Data show that since the beginning of this year, the A-share basic metal index has surged and dropped, and the sector underperformed the broad market trend over the same period. As the non-ferrous metal assets weaken, some researchers believe that the "spring" of non-ferrous metals is coming. Industry insiders said that in the context of monetary easing, the gold-silver-copper round has started. From the end of 2019 to the first half of 2020, the copper market may usher in an opportunity of "over-allocation", and the judgment is mainly based on the three major conditions of slowing supply growth, low explicit inventory levels, and the gradual landing and upgrading of global counter-cyclical policies.

On the supply side, copper prices and capital expenditures of copper companies have peaked in 2011 and 2013 and have fallen since the last round of commodity bull markets. In terms of inventory, as of the end of October 2019, the copper stocks of the three major exchanges totaled 295,000 tons, which was at a low level in the past four years. In addition, the copper stocks in domestic bonded areas were 326,400 tons, which was also a historically low level. Over the past four years, copper's dominant inventory has been at a low level for four years. In addition, in terms of monetary policy, since the beginning of 2019, 22 central banks have cut interest rates, and the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row. Since September this year, domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies have also been strengthened. It is expected that from 2019 to 2020, copper supply and demand will enter an era of tight balance, and copper prices are expected to remain firm.

Anxin Securities pointed out that in the short term, domestic and foreign counter-cyclical easing policies are on the ground, relief from short-term economic panic and recession concerns, demand expectations are repaired, inventory cycle starts and market risk appetite rises, the market regains confidence in the cycle, industrial metals and small metals There will be successive performances. It is optimistic that the contraction strength of the supply side is sufficient, and there is a marginal improvement in demand, such as copper, cobalt, and tin. At the same time, it is also optimistic about metal new materials companies that meet the direction of industrial upgrading. In the long term, the medium-term and long-term bullish outlook for the precious metals remains unchanged.

Great Wall Securities analyst Wu Xuan said that the relevant authorities recently proposed to improve the capital system of fixed asset investment projects, reduce the minimum capital ratio of some infrastructure projects, and allow the use of equity and equity instruments to raise no more than 50% of capital, which is expected to increase Promote domestic infrastructure investment and promote the recovery of downstream demand for non-ferrous metals.

From a fundamental point of view, Wu Xuan analyzes that copper is a promising type of industrial metal at present. This year, affected by strikes and declining mine grades, copper concentrate output has been limited. Global refined copper output in January-August It fell 2%. As the strike in Chile continues, the copper supply side may be further tightened. On the demand side, copper is highly correlated with infrastructure investment. In the future, with the macro-countercyclical adjustment policy gradually deepening, infrastructure investment is expected to promote downstream demand. Well, copper prices may gradually pick up.

Hanrui Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt have also been active since the opening of the market on December 4, with gains of 3.98% and 4.63% respectively at the close of the market. This is mainly due to the fact that the major commodity giant Glencore announced that the Mutanda project has entered a maintenance shutdown. Mutanda is the largest cobalt mine in the world with the largest reserves and production. It is the absolute main mine of Glencore. In 2018, it produced 27,300 tons of cobalt, accounting for 21% of global cobalt production.

At the same time, Glencore announced plans for cobalt production in the next three years. Among them, cobalt production from 2019 to 2022 will be 43,000 tons, 29,000 tons, 32,000 tons and 32,000 tons. It can be seen that three years from 2020, cobalt production will shrink significantly. The market's expectations for supply contraction finally came to an end.

Guotai Junan Nonferrous Metals believes that the supply and demand balance of cobalt is expected to improve significantly in 2020. It is estimated that Mutanda will suspend production, and the corresponding supply will shrink by 17% (27,000 tons) in the short term. Supply and demand will reverse to tight supply. It is recommended that a cobalt plate be laid at the bottom.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that in October the real estate data exceeded expectations, the central bank disguised "interest rate cuts", the future downstream consumer demand of the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to improve margins, and the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to usher in a rebound, focusing on industrial metals, and recommending attention to Zijin Mining (601899 ), Yunnan Copper (000878), Yunnan Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo (000933). In addition, at present, the prices of cobalt and lithium in the upstream resources of new energy vehicles have fallen to the bottom. Demand-side Europe and Germany have increased subsidies for new-energy vehicles. The supply-side Australian lithium mines have ceased production, while Mutanda ’s largest cobalt mine, Mutanda It was also closed 1 month in advance. With the supply and demand fundamentals improving, the cobalt-lithium sector has reached a better configuration period. Tianqi Lithium (002466), Ganfeng Lithium (002460), and Hanrui Cobalt (300618) are recommended. ), Huayou Cobalt (603799).